CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on X that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle is only just beginning and forecast a 3–5x rise during the cycle, rather than a parabolic gain of more than 10x. He said the shift matters because Bitcoin’s larger market capitalization and increased institutional ownership could limit both gains and losses, reducing the likelihood of the 80% drawdowns that followed earlier rallies.

According to Ju, previous Bitcoin rallies were fueled by “hot money” and the dominance of retail investors. Those conditions produced explosive gains followed by price declines of as much as 80%, he said.

Ju said the market has since changed as its capitalization has increased and institutions have come to hold a larger share of Bitcoin. In his view, those factors cap potential gains while also softening potential drawdowns.

He expects Bitcoin to rise 3–5x in the current cycle, followed by a milder bear market.

On-chain metrics indicate a change in market structure

Ju pointed to the profit-and-loss, or PnL, index, which tracks the aggregate profitability of Bitcoin holders. He said the indicator shows that cycle peaks have become less extreme, while market lows are forming at higher profitability levels.

During the current cycle, MVRV has not fallen below 1, Ju said. That means Bitcoin’s price remained above holders’ average on-chain cost basis even at local market bottoms. Some investors could still have recorded losses, but holders overall were not “underwater,” he added.

Ju also cited growth in realized capitalization, which he said indicates an inflow of new capital. He said “old” Bitcoin whales had stopped selling, while futures whales had established large long positions near the market bottom.

The 365-day moving average of the PnL index, which typically lags market turning points, is also forming a meaningful reversal point, according to Ju.

Lower upside could mean lower downside risk

Ju said his forecast does not set a specific upper limit for Bitcoin’s price. Instead, it reflects what he described as a change in the asset’s risk-to-reward balance.

In his view, a move away from parabolic gains of more than 10x also reduces the likelihood of an 80% drawdown. He said that could make Bitcoin more attractive to long-term capital rather than speculative “hot money.”

Ju also suggested that Bitcoin’s gradual maturation could bring it closer to Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision of an asset stable enough to be used as money.

“Bitcoin’s bull rally has only just begun, but nobody cares,” Ju said.

Source: Incrypted