The market analysis said bitcoin swept lower liquidity during the past trading week before returning to the top of its range, leaving the May high as a key unresolved level. It said Ethereum also advanced while the Dollar Index held above 100.000, making this week’s economic data and reactions at major technical levels important potential triggers.

Bitcoin approaches May high

Bitcoin fell through $76,151.9 after entering a daily fair-value gap without finding support. Combined with the previous week’s wick above the range, the move formed what the analysis described as a two-sided deviation without a confirming close.

The May high of $82,828.7 has remained untouched for five weeks, while liquidity below local lows has already been collected. Bitcoin again stalled near the range’s upper edge around $81,550.

The analysis identified a four-hour fair-value gap at $78,500–$80,500 as the main local resistance area. Other upside references were the previous-week high at $81,933.9, the May high and the $84,000–$88,000 zone.

Downside levels included $76,000; equal lows at $75,000; the previous-week low at $74,909.4; the 2024 all-time high at $73,881.4; the weekly 0.5 Fibonacci level at $72,513.6; a daily fair-value gap at $70,000–$73,000; and the 2021 all-time high at $69,198.7.

The four-hour relative strength index rose to 69.9, while open interest climbed to 109,640 beneath the highs. The analysis said that buildup could provide momentum for a breakout or form a trap.

Its first scenario involved a sweep of $82,828.7 followed by a return below $81,500, a break beneath $75,000 and a decline toward $72,513.6. A second scenario called for acceptance above the May high and an advance into $86,000–$88,000. A third envisaged a pullback into $78,500–$80,500 before a reversal above $82,828.7. The related bitcoin charts are available from TradingView and TradingView.

Ethereum leaves gaps below

Ethereum first fell to $2,357.00, leaving a four-hour fair-value gap at $2,330–$2,355 unfilled, before reversing to a new previous-week high of $2,669.00. The high was breached around Monday’s open amid thin liquidity.

At about $2,652, Ethereum was positioned between hourly imbalances. Upside levels stood at $2,710–$2,750, $2,820 and $2,950. Below the price, the analysis identified gaps at $2,595–$2,610, $2,520–$2,575 and $2,460–$2,470, followed by the previous-week low at $2,357.00 and the unfilled four-hour gap around $2,330–$2,350. It described the untouched $1,920–$2,220 imbalance as the main downside threat.

Ethereum’s four-hour RSI was around 66 as derivatives open interest increased. The scenarios included a stop-hunt at $2,750–$2,820 followed by a fall toward $2,330–$2,350; a shallow pullback to $2,595–$2,610 before an advance toward $2,950; or a deeper test of $2,520–$2,575 followed by a move through $2,669 toward $2,950. The corresponding charts are available on TradingView, TradingView and TradingView.

Dollar Index holds above 100

The Dollar Index reached a fresh local previous-week high of 100.564 and consolidated near 100.305 after breaking above the psychological and structural 100.000 level. The analysis said former resistance had become support, with 100.083 serving as the main defensive level for buyers and a four-hour support gap spanning 99.700–100.083. The previous-week low stood at 99.073.

Above 100.564, the analysis identified four-hour gaps at 100.700–100.900 and 101.000–101.300. Its scenarios were a retest of 100.083 followed by renewed gains; a direct breakout toward 100.700–100.900 on strong PMI data; or a sweep above 100.564 followed by a rejection below 100.083 and a decline toward 99.800. Charts for those scenarios are available from TradingView, TradingView and TradingView.

Economic catalysts

Preliminary manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes are due Wednesday, September 23, at 16:45. Weekly jobless claims follow Thursday, September 24, at 15:30, with new home sales at 17:00. The analysis said services remaining above the 50 expansion threshold would support further dollar strength, while any departure in claims from the current near-low level of 196,000 could trigger volatility.

The analysis also highlighted ETF inflows and the spot-to-futures ratio, saying highs made through leverage while flows remain negative would indicate distribution. It identified bitcoin’s $78,500–$80,500 area and a sweep of $82,828.7 as key decision points, while Ethereum reference zones included $2,595–$2,610, $2,520–$2,575 and a return below $2,669.

This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis represents the author’s personal opinion, and Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.

Source: Incrypted