- Wintermute said the $6.3 billion Binance hack was the main source of pressure on the crypto market last week, diverting investors’ attention from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and macroeconomic data.
- Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and crypto-market liquidations reached $1.5 billion, while insufficient spot demand left the market vulnerable, according to the firm.
- Wintermute identified $78,000 and the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next key levels for bitcoin.
Wintermute said the $6.3 billion Binance hack dominated crypto trading last week, shifting investors’ focus away from the Federal Reserve meeting and economic data. The incident drove bitcoin below $80,000 and total crypto-market liquidations to $1.5 billion, but the subsequent recovery lacked sufficient spot-market demand, the market maker said in a review.
Wintermute attributed the scale of liquidations to traders buying the dip mainly through leveraged perpetual futures. Demand in the spot market was not strong enough, leaving highly leveraged positions exposed to further forced closures.
The initial sell-off hit major crypto assets hardest, according to the firm. Some altcoins showed relative resilience compared with their performance during similar incidents.
Trading flows also revealed regional differences. U.S. retail investors bought the dip in the spot market, while demand for bitcoin and Ethereum among Asian participants faded quickly when European trading began, Wintermute said.
Before the hack, correlations among the top 50, top 100 and top 250 crypto assets had been rising gradually. That trend reversed after the list of compromised assets emerged and funds began moving through decentralized finance, or DeFi.
Wintermute said concern about specific tokens linked to the incident added to broader market pressure. The resulting divergence in asset performance made it more difficult to assess the crypto market as a whole. HYPE was among the assets that held up better than the broader market.
Key bitcoin levels
Wintermute described $80,000 as a defining level for the current market structure. After bitcoin fell below that threshold, the market maker shifted its attention to $78,000, followed by the 50-week moving average near $76,800.
The firm cautioned that a rebound after large liquidations does not necessarily show that buyers have returned. Because traders bought the decline mainly through futures, Wintermute said there was not yet enough evidence that fresh spot-market capital was driving the recovery.
Wintermute also warned against relying on direct historical comparisons. Liquidations of this scale often occur near the end of a market cycle, meaning previous episodes may not help predict bitcoin’s next move, the firm said.
The market maker said it would drop its cautious short-term stance if bitcoin regained $80,000 and held above that level with support from spot-market demand and inflows into exchange-traded funds. A loss of the 50-week moving average would strengthen the bearish scenario, it added.
Wintermute said bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 and show confirmed demand from spot investors and ETFs for the recovery to continue. The firm had previously forecast that a break above $87,000 could open the way for further gains, while a loss of support at $82,500 could send bitcoin toward the $70,000 area.
Source: Incrypted
