- Bitcoin remained within the same trading range for a third consecutive week, with resistance at $82,282.8-$82,828.7 and nearby support at $77,000-$78,000.
- Ethereum swept its local weekly low at $2,355.12 but did not fully enter the four-hour fair-value gap below the market.
- The Dollar Index fell into a four-hour fair-value gap at 98.900-99.100 after briefly rising above the previous week’s high.
- U.S. producer and consumer inflation reports are the week’s main scheduled macroeconomic triggers.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remained in three-week trading ranges as opposing volume absorbed short-term price moves, according to the author’s market analysis. The consolidation places greater emphasis on this week’s U.S. inflation data, which could determine whether the cryptocurrencies break their ranges or fall toward unfilled price gaps.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 162,000, compared with an expected 55,000, but the resulting market impulses were quickly absorbed. The analysis said the charts continued to show accumulation and dense liquidity on both sides of the current ranges.
Bitcoin remains compressed
Bitcoin’s attempt to extend higher ended after it swept local highs and reversed at $82,282.8. That left the May high of $82,828.7 untouched and fell $546 short of activating the daily fair-value gap, or FVG, at $82,828-$84,000.
The analysis identified resistance at the previous week’s high of $82,282.8 and the May high of $82,828.7, with the former key level of $81,500 now acting as intermediate resistance. The nearest downside support is a daily FVG at $77,000-$78,000.
Lower reference points include the previous week’s low at $76,151.9, the $75,588 level, the 2024 all-time high at $73,881.4, the 2021 all-time high at $69,198.7 and a deeper imbalance at $64,000-$65,000. Equal lows from August near $62,500 remain a potential longer-term target, according to the analysis.
The four-hour relative strength index was at 48.7 for a second week, while open interest held at 106,800, showing no sign of aggressive position-building or liquidation.
One scenario calls for the $77,000-$78,000 FVG to hold as support before an advance through $82,282.8 and the May high. Another envisages a move above $82,828.7 followed by a failure to hold, potentially sending bitcoin toward the weekly 0.5 Fibonacci level at $72,513.6. A third scenario involves a sweep above $82,828.7, a reversal to $76,151.9 and a return to the range.
Four-hour BTC/USDT.P charts: Scenario A, Scenario B and Scenario C. Data: TradingView.
Ethereum tests lower boundary
Ethereum updated its weekly low to $2,355.12 but only touched the upper boundary of the four-hour FVG before returning to its three-week range of $2,355-$2,566. Its upward move stalled at $2,547.00, or $19 below the previous month’s high.
The untouched price gap at $1,920-$2,220 remains the principal downside risk identified by the analysis. Below it are a daily FVG at $1,900-$1,920 and the previous month’s low at $1,820.61. Open interest declined to 2.29 million, which the author said pointed to local deleveraging.
The outlined scenarios include a full move into the four-hour FVG before a rebound toward $2,547-$2,566; support above $2,440 followed by a break through $2,547.00 and $2,566.40 toward $2,600; or a liquidity sweep above $2,566.40 followed by a reversal toward the untouched $2,100-$2,080 imbalance.
Four-hour ETH/USDT.P charts: Scenario A, Scenario B and Scenario C. Data: TradingView.
Dollar Index tests support
The Dollar Index rose above the previous week’s high to 99.863, sweeping short liquidity, before falling after Friday’s labor-market data. DXY then moved into the lower four-hour FVG at 98.900-99.100 and was attempting to stabilize at 98.954. Its four-hour RSI was around 37.
Upside reference points are the broken previous month’s low at 99.692, the previous week’s high at 99.863 and an unfilled four-hour FVG above 99.600. Below the current support zone are the previous week’s low at 98.831 and another untouched FVG at 98.400-98.700.
The analysis outlined three possibilities: a break below 98.831 toward 98.400-98.700; a rebound through 99.692 toward 99.863 after stronger inflation data; or a brief sweep below 98.831 followed by a V-shaped recovery to 99.692.
DXY charts: Scenario A, Scenario B and Scenario C. Data: TradingView.
Scheduled catalysts
U.S. markets face reduced liquidity on Monday, September 7, because of the Labor Day holiday. Producer price data and jobless claims are scheduled for Thursday, September 10, at 15:30, followed by the consumer price index and core CPI on Friday, September 11, at 15:30.
The analysis said faster inflation could support a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance and strengthen DXY, while slower inflation could revive demand for risk assets. U.S. lawmakers are due to return on September 15 amid expectations of a CLARITY Act vote. A sudden escalation in the Middle East was also identified as a potential downside risk for risk assets.
Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis reflects the author’s personal opinion. Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.
Source: Incrypted
