Former quantitative analyst Beni accused Kalshi on Sept. 19, 2026, of artificially inflating trading volumes for crypto instruments, citing data for its Ethereum perpetual futures contract. The allegation matters because Kalshi’s reported monthly notional volume reached about $40 billion in August, roughly 46 times its level a year earlier, while the company disputed Beni’s interpretation of its metrics.

In a post, Beni said open interest in ETH-PERP was about $3.1 million when he published his thread, compared with daily volume of $538.6 million. Daily volume therefore exceeded open interest by roughly 174 times, equivalent by his calculation to turning over the entire open interest about every eight minutes. The largest position on Kalshi’s leaderboard was about $17,600.

Beni also cited a liquidity incentive program described in documents Kalshi filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Under the program, eligible participants receive a discounted taker fee of 0.3 basis points on crypto perpetual contracts, while the market maker receives a comparable rebate.

Beni argued that the structure could materially reduce the cost of churning volume between accounts. The CFTC documents confirm that the program exists but do not, by themselves, indicate wash trading.

He separately pointed to Kalshi’s agreement with Jump Trading. Media reports previously said the market maker was set to receive an equity stake in Kalshi in exchange for providing liquidity. Beni suggested that arrangement created an incentive to increase trading metrics, but he provided no evidence that Jump Trading participated in the alleged artificial generation of volume.

Trade sizes draw scrutiny

In a follow-up post, Beni analyzed ETH-PERP data and identified numerous transactions of about $5,500. According to his data, trades around that size accounted for between 48% and 58% of the instrument’s volume on certain days.

An independent user also analyzed data obtained through Kalshi’s public API. Of 529,318 trades over seven days with combined notional volume of about $2.22 billion, transactions near $5,500 represented roughly $1.23 billion, or 55.47%. That concentration alone does not prove wash trading or intentional inflation of trading statistics.

Kalshi rejects allegations

Kalshi’s head of crypto, who uses the pseudonym IcoBeast, rejected Beni’s claims. He said the initial dispute concerned Kalshi’s share of the prediction market, while Beni relied on perpetual futures data to support his argument.

IcoBeast said the rebate program for perpetual contracts does not apply to crypto prediction markets. He also said Kalshi’s practice of displaying volume by number of contracts is consistent with other platforms in the sector, including Polymarket.

He disputed the suggestion that Kalshi independently selects organizations for Self-Clearing Member status, saying access is open to organizations that meet regulatory requirements. He added that other trading venues also use liquidity incentive programs.

Kalshi’s documentation allows the company to exclude transactions related or potentially related to wash trading, self-matching, prearranged trades and other abuses from the incentive program. Kalshi can also revoke a participant’s access to the program.

Notional volume surges

The dispute followed rapid growth in Kalshi’s reported activity. According to Dune Analytics data, Kalshi’s monthly notional trading volume reached about $40 billion in August 2026, up from around $874 million a year earlier. The platform accounted for nearly 79% of total prediction-market volume tracked by Dune that month.

Growth accelerated during 2026. Dune data showed that Kalshi’s volume during the FIFA World Cup was roughly 2.5 times Polymarket’s. Kalshi’s combined monthly figure reached record levels in July amid increased activity in sports contracts.

Notional volume is not equivalent to the amount users deposit or to Kalshi’s revenue. In prediction markets, the measure is based on the notional value of contracts, an issue that formed part of the dispute between Beni and Kalshi’s representative.

Source: Incrypted