JP Morgan Asset Management included bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, according to a report highlighted by Grayscale on Nov. 4, 2026. The inclusion matters because JPMorgan projects higher returns for bitcoin than for other asset classes in the report and identifies potential diversification benefits, while estimating substantially higher volatility.

In its base case, JPMorgan’s investment arm expects bitcoin to deliver a 10% compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years. The firm estimates its annual volatility at 55%, reflecting significantly greater risk than traditional asset classes.

Grayscale drew attention to the forecast in an X post, saying the asset manager, which has around $5 trillion in assets under management, had added bitcoin to its long-term assumptions. Grayscale also linked to further coverage on The Stack.

Potential diversification role

JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. large-cap stocks at 33%. The figure is lower than the corresponding correlations for international equities, corporate bonds and hedge funds, according to the report.

The combination of potentially high returns and relatively low correlation with traditional assets could make bitcoin a portfolio diversification tool. However, JPMorgan remains cautious about its role in portfolios because its correlations are unstable.

The firm would not include bitcoin in the core covariance matrices it uses to model relationships among assets. As a result, any diversification benefits would depend on how bitcoin’s returns and its relationships with other markets develop.

Other long-term bitcoin forecasts

JPMorgan’s assessment comes alongside other long-term forecasts for bitcoin. VanEck has suggested that bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050 if it gains widespread use in global trade. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, has also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against dollar debasement.

Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036. The firm expects an average annual return of 34.3%.

Venture investor Jason Calacanis has offered the opposite view, suggesting that bitcoin will not set another all-time high and could fall to $57,000 over the next 12 months.

Source: Incrypted