Fidelity said in an analytical report that bitcoin may be nearing the end of its current bear market, with a potential bottom forming around November 2026. The assessment matters because historical cycle patterns, changing volatility and sustained demand for digital assets may indicate that the bearish phase is approaching its end, although Fidelity cautioned that those signals are not conclusive.

A possible November bottom

Fidelity analysts pointed to bitcoin’s four-year cycles. For most of the asset’s history, local bear-market bottoms and bull-market peaks have formed at roughly four-year intervals, according to the report.

The previous bitcoin bottom occurred in November 2022. If the historical pattern holds, the next bottom could form around November 2026, Fidelity said.

However, the firm emphasized that cycles do not last exactly four years and cannot identify a precise market entry point. Fidelity said the bottom may already have formed in July, while bitcoin could instead fall again and set a new low in November or later.

“More important for investors is that digital asset adoption happens in waves, which can be what creates cycles,” said Chris Kuiper, Fidelity’s vice president of research.

Kuiper said a long-term outlook and holding assets over time have historically benefited investors more than attempts to time the market precisely.

Volatility shifts

Fidelity also cited changes in volatility. Kuiper said digital assets experienced relatively low volatility from June through mid-August. During that period, Fidelity’s analysis showed bitcoin trading near the lower bound of, or within, its “fair value” range compared with historical data.

Conditions changed by late August, when bitcoin entered a high-volatility phase and gained more than 25% during the month’s third week. Ethereum rose 34.1% over the same period, while Solana gained 28%.

Previous bitcoin bear markets also ended after periods of low volatility followed by sharp price increases, Fidelity said. The firm cautioned that this pattern alone does not confirm that the current bear market has ended.

“Recent events that would likely have acted as bear market catalysts — such as a hardware wallet security incident or the stalling of the CLARITY Act bill — did not lead to price declines,” Kuiper said.

Kuiper said that response could be another indication that the crypto market is near a bottom and awaiting its next positive catalyst.

Adoption metrics continue to rise

Fidelity also pointed to the crypto industry’s underlying adoption metrics. Despite weak price action during much of the third quarter, use of digital assets continued to grow, the firm said.

Stablecoin transaction volume in July was 2.3 times Visa’s figure, according to the report. Also in July, MetaMask reported accelerating growth in the tokenized real-world asset market in 2026.

Crypto-asset prices and adoption metrics therefore moved in different directions over the past several months. Fidelity said the August rally may indicate that the connection between fundamentals and prices is gradually being restored.

Kuiper said digital-asset adoption metrics should be viewed as the networks’ fundamental base. Their resilience and growth over recent months suggest that the underlying value of crypto networks remained unchanged even when market prices temporarily failed to keep pace, according to the report.

Fidelity cautioned that the positive signals do not guarantee a definitive end to the bearish trend. The firm said investors should continue monitoring volatility, the pace of digital-asset adoption and bitcoin’s ability to retain its recovered positions.

CryptoQuant analysts previously said the idea of catching the absolute market bottom was misguided.

Source: Incrypted