Cryptocurrency exchange Binance suffered a large-scale hack on the night of Oct. 30, 2026, with losses estimated at $6.3 billion. The reported loss surpassed the February 2025 Bybit hack, but bitcoin’s limited decline led some analysts to describe the market reaction as bullish.

Bitcoin briefly fell from about $82,000 to $76,000 before recovering above $78,000. Other analysts warned that the attack could deepen negative sentiment and trigger weeks of fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Bitcoin limits losses after hack

Onchain analyst Willy Woo said exchange-traded fund participants sold $643 million in assets during the week, but bitcoin still performed slightly better than gold. According to Woo’s Nov. 1 post, gold fell 3%, while bitcoin declined 2.9%.

Woo said the relative performance indicated that bitcoin remained in a bull market. He contrasted the reaction with the 25% bitcoin decline that followed the FTX collapse during a bear market.

Charles Edwards, founder of crypto fund Capriole, said he had been wrong in his earlier expectations and emphasized the importance of timing market entries. Edwards described bitcoin holding around $77,000 three days after what he called the biggest robbery in history as an impressive result and a possible bullish signal.

Edwards said he would continue monitoring longer-term risks associated with artificial intelligence and quantum computing. He also expressed hope that Bitcoin Core developers would soon take steps to mitigate the potential threat.

Withdrawals exceed $4 billion

Analyst Darkfost estimated that users withdrew more than $4 billion after Binance resumed withdrawals. The exchange had temporarily suspended withdrawals after the attack, a step Darkfost said was intended to stop asset outflows and protect users.

Darkfost said Binance later reported recovering more than 90% of the stolen assets and gradually restored withdrawals. He praised the response by Binance, Tether and Circle, which he said helped limit the impact, and noted that Binance used its own funds to guarantee the return of customer assets.

CryptoQuant reported that the Fear and Greed Index fell to 30 after the hack and remained in the fear zone. Sentiment had already weakened before the incident: the index declined from 68 on Oct. 22 to 51 on Oct. 29.

The reading of 30 was below the historical median of 44 but above the lower quartile of 26. Its 30-day average stood at 56. CryptoQuant said a sustained increase in the index, supported by a bitcoin price recovery, would be needed to confirm an improvement in sentiment.

Santiment said social-media discussion of Binance exceeded attention given to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, Strategy’s approval of daily dividends and the coming U.S. midterm elections. The surge coincided with bitcoin’s fall toward $76,400. Santiment expected further details about the hack to emerge in November.

Analysts assess cycle signals and further risks

Coin Bureau highlighted a pattern in which the previous three bitcoin cycle lows formed after U.S. midterm elections: 71 days afterward in 2014, 39 days afterward in 2018 and 13 days afterward in 2022.

The next midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026. Coin Bureau said late 2026 or early 2027 could therefore be worth watching for another cyclical low, while cautioning that three previous examples did not establish a causal relationship.

Analyst PlanB said bitcoin closed October at $77,430 without the anticipated “Uptober” rally. However, he interpreted the relative strength index remaining above 50 for a third consecutive month as a signal that a new bull market may be starting.

Crypto analyst TedPillows, who has an audience of more than 300,000, predicted a strong wave of fear, uncertainty and doubt over the next several weeks. He said market participants could question security across the industry, including possible risks involving Satoshi Nakamoto or assets held by ETF funds.

CryptoKaleo, founder of LedgArt, said investors should not become excessively pessimistic. He noted that bitcoin fell to $16,000 after FTX collapsed, when some participants expected a decline below $10,000, but later rose above $100,000.

Binance stresses secure access to funds

An account labeled “CZ BNB – Parody” said security, transparency and user confidence must remain priorities as crypto platforms evolve.

Binance co-founder and co-CEO Yi He said the exchange’s first priority was securing its environment, followed by enabling withdrawals and resuming operations. She said Binance communicated its actions and focused on restoring secure operations and access to customer funds.

Source: Incrypted