Bitcoin and Ethereum ended October 2026 with losses, defying the crypto community’s traditionally positive expectations for the month. Bitcoin fell 7.32%, while Ethereum lost 16.06%, according to CoinGlass.

It was bitcoin’s sixth losing October in the available observation history and Ethereum’s fifth.

Bitcoin’s performance contrasted with the historical pattern behind “Uptober,” a term combining “up” and “October” that reflects the cryptocurrency’s gains during most previous Octobers. From 2013 through 2025, bitcoin ended October higher in 10 of 13 years, with an average return of 18.71% and a median return of 12.73%.

Market sentiment also weakened. The crypto fear and greed index stood at 36 out of 100 at the time of writing, down from 43 a week earlier and within the fear zone.

Bitcoin was trading at $77,953 at the time of writing, according to TradingView, while Ethereum traded at $2,269.

Binance hack and Fed decision added pressure

One of the month’s largest developments was a major security incident at Binance. The exchange was hacked on Oct. 29, with estimated losses of about $6.3 billion. Bitcoin reached $76,000 amid the news.

Macroeconomic conditions also weighed on the market. On Oct. 28, the U.S. Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide specific forecasts for the future course of monetary policy.

Analysts also identified positive indicators during the month. CryptoQuant reported rising inflows from retail investors on Binance, with the 30-day figure increasing from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, its highest level in six months.

Traders’ realized price also moved closer to $70,000, which experts viewed as a potential support level.

Bitcoin forecasts diverged

Investment firm Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price forecast to $1.6 million by 2036 from $1.3 million. VanEck maintained its long-term projection that bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050 if it gains broad adoption in global trade.

Venture investor Jason Calacanis offered a more pessimistic assessment, saying bitcoin would not set a new all-time high and predicting that it would fall to $57,000 over the next 12 months.

Spiral, a division of Jack Dorsey’s Block, highlighted weak demand for bitcoin payments. According to its developers, stablecoins remain more attractive to payment platforms despite the Lightning Network’s growth.

Bitcoin had ended September up 6.5%, while Ethereum gained nearly 9%.

Source: Incrypted