«Сахарный кайф» — новое эссе Артура Хейса. Краткий пересказ

In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes explores the potential for a “sugar high” in global financial markets, driven by rapid yen appreciation and central bank actions. This phenomenon could have significant repercussions on cryptocurrency markets.

Impact of Yen Appreciation

August’s experiences demonstrated that a swift strengthening of the yen leads to turmoil in global financial markets. Should central banks of the world’s three largest economies lower interest rates, strengthening the yen, we would see a negative reaction from most financial assets.

Competing Factors

Two opposing forces emerge:
– **Positive**: Easing monetary policy.
– **Negative**: Threat of unwinding carry trades.
Given that yen-financed deals amount to tens of trillions of dollars, the market decline from the cessation of carry trades could outweigh benefits from rate cuts. Regulators might need to expand their balances to counteract the yen’s impact.

The Fed’s Dilemma

From an economic standpoint, the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue raising rates. Since 2020, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen by 22%, and the Fed’s balance sheet has grown by $3 trillion. Moreover, a record budget deficit in the US suggests that the cost of debt isn’t high enough to compel policymakers to increase taxes or reduce spending.

Market Dynamics and Fed Actions

If the Fed were serious about maintaining confidence in the dollar, it would raise rates to curb economic activity. This would lower prices, reduce jobs, and make national debt servicing prohibitively expensive. However, the regulator seeks a “sugar high” by lowering rates prematurely.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the US economy has only seen a real GDP decline in two quarters. Adjusted GDP forecasts for Q3 2024 predict a 2% growth, indicating a robust economy that doesn’t need rate cuts.

Stock Market and Treasury Actions

The US Treasury’s actions, including the issuance of large quantities of treasury bills, have nominally boosted the stock market by releasing dollar liquidity from the Fed’s reverse repo program (RRP). Despite the Fed raising the cost of money until March 2023, the Treasury’s actions led to a nominal stock market increase. However, when evaluated in gold or Bitcoin, the S&P 500’s growth is much less impressive.

Labor Market Revisions

The Fed’s justification for lowering rates hinges on a revised report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, revealing that previous job numbers were overestimated by about 800,000. This reevaluation provided Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a reason to lower rates in September, ensuring sufficient cheap money flow into the economy and guaranteeing stock market growth ahead of presidential elections.

Implications for Cryptocurrency

These developments have profound implications for the cryptocurrency market. Lower interest rates could lead to increased liquidity and investment in digital assets. However, the potential disruption of carry trades and market volatility could pose challenges.
In summary, Arthur Hayes’ essay highlights the intricate balance central banks must maintain between monetary policy and market stability. The interplay between yen appreciation, Fed actions, and labor market revisions will significantly impact both traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector.