Bitcoin’s gains over the past three years depended heavily on a small number of trading days, according to a Grayscale analysis. The asset returned roughly 225% during the period, while the Nasdaq rose 109%.

Grayscale analysts said excluding bitcoin’s five best trading days would reduce its cumulative return from 225% to 95%. Removing the 10 best days would lower the return to 27%, while excluding the 15 strongest sessions would leave bitcoin with an 11% loss.

The Nasdaq’s performance was less dependent on individual sessions. Excluding its 15 best trading days would reduce its three-year result from 109% to 21%.

Grayscale said bitcoin’s strongest moves were difficult to predict. By its estimates, less than 0.5% of trading days during the analyzed period generated enough upside that excluding them would cut the asset’s total return by more than half.

The analysis also said “sitting out” periods of high volatility could carry significant opportunity costs. Investors waiting for a more favorable entry point risk missing sharp upward moves, Grayscale said.

Puell Multiple signals a possible shift in the market cycle

CryptoQuant provided a separate signal about the state of the market in an analysis of the Puell Multiple. The platform said the metric’s seven-day moving average reached an 11-month high and rose above 1 for the first time in about 10 months.

The metric had remained below 1 since November 2025, a level that has historically corresponded to periods of bitcoin accumulation and the formation of a market bottom, according to CryptoQuant. The indicator is now moving out of that zone.

CryptoQuant said the Puell Multiple’s next target could be 2, potentially indicating a transition into a new phase of the market cycle.

The analysts said: “Historically, every time this indicator traded below 1 (the discount zone), it signaled periods of bitcoin accumulation associated with the formation of a market bottom. As the Puell Multiple breaks above 1, exiting the accumulation zone, the start of a trend reversal is expected, with an initial target of 2. The bitcoin price has room for further upside as it attempts to break through key resistance levels.”

Willy Woo previously said bitcoin had never underperformed stocks over a four-year investment horizon.

Source: Incrypted