- CryptoQuant said its Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric remains negative, while the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed mostly below zero.
- Bitcoin open interest has fallen nearly 10% since September 22, from $28.8 billion to $26 billion, according to the firm.
- CryptoQuant said bitcoin holdings in spot exchange-traded funds continue to rise, signaling that demand through those funds remains intact.
- Analysts said the $69,000 area could become a key support level if the current bull cycle holds.
CryptoQuant analysts recently linked bitcoin’s pullback to weak spot demand and declining derivatives-market activity. The assessment matters because the firm also identified continued growth in spot ETF holdings and the $69,000 area as a potential support level.
Spot and futures demand weakens
CryptoQuant said its Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric remains negative. The Coinbase Premium Index is also mostly in negative territory, indicating muted buying pressure from U.S. investors, according to the analysts.
Activity in the derivatives market has also cooled. Since September 22, bitcoin’s price has remained roughly flat, while open interest has fallen nearly 10%, from $28.8 billion to $26 billion, CryptoQuant said.
The analysts said the decline indicates that futures traders have limited willingness to take on additional risk while spot demand remains weak.
Meanwhile, bitcoin holdings in spot ETFs continue to rise from record levels, according to CryptoQuant. The firm views that trend as a positive signal that demand for bitcoin through spot funds remains steady.
If the current bull cycle holds, CryptoQuant said the pullback could offer an opportunity for medium- and long-term buyers. The analysts identified the $69,000 area, which they said represents the average acquisition price of short-term bitcoin holders, as a possible key support level.
Analysts see a possible transition to an uptrend
In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant examined the ratio of bitcoin supply held at a loss to supply held at a profit. The analysts said the two metrics crossed near the bottom of previous down cycles and then diverged again as the market moved into an uptrend.
CryptoQuant said the current market structure fits that pattern, although it differs from previous cycles in one respect: bitcoin did not fall below its realized price while forming the bottom.
Despite that difference, the analysts said the overall structure supports viewing the market’s current state as a transition toward a new uptrend, or bull, cycle.
Separately, Grayscale previously said bitcoin’s three-year return would have fallen to 27% without its 10 best-performing days.
Source: Incrypted
