Bitcoin held four-hour closes above $80,000 last week after briefly falling to $79,732.3, while Ethereum continued lower. The author’s analysis said both assets remain within wide trading ranges, making confirmation at range boundaries important before taking positions.

Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis reflects the author’s personal opinion. Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.

Bitcoin holds $80,000 support

Bitcoin’s advance stalled at $84,340.2. The market tested the imbalance below that level but did not reach the $85,200 block. It later swept the structural low at $80,095.9, although four-hour candles closed above $80,000 and the author’s final downside target at $79,500 remained unfilled.

A V-shaped move during Monday’s Asian session lifted bitcoin from $80,700 to $82,900. That created a dense traded area at $81,000-$82,000 and a fresh four-hour fair value gap, or FVG, at $81,200-$82,000.

Bitcoin was trading near $82,883. Its four-hour relative strength index was 58, while open interest was nearly unchanged at 95,060 contracts. The analysis said the move occurred without aggressive leverage growth, suggesting a local short squeeze and a return to the middle of the range rather than the arrival of a large institutional buyer.

Under the first scenario, bitcoin would move toward $85,000, make a false breakout above the prior week’s high of $84,340.2 and then fall through $81,000-$82,000 toward $78,400. The corresponding chart is available from TradingView.

A second scenario calls for a pullback into the $81,200-$82,000 FVG, followed by a move through $83,600, $84,340.2 and toward $85,200, provided four-hour candles hold above $81,200. A third envisions rejection at $83,600-$84,000, loss of the FVG and a decline through $80,000 toward $78,400. Charts for those scenarios are available here and here.

Ethereum retains bearish structure

Ethereum broke the prior week’s low at $2,405.07 and the prior month’s low at $2,355.12, reaching $2,313.39. The daily imbalance near $2,200 remained untouched. The analysis described a bearish structure in place since Oct. 7, with successive lower highs and the prior week’s high at $2,578.97.

Ethereum was trading at $2,433, with a four-hour RSI of 51. Open interest fell to 2.29 million, indicating that the rebound from local lows was driven by position closures rather than new buying, according to the author.

The bearish scenario calls for a move to $2,480-$2,500, followed by a loss of support at $2,380-$2,400 and a decline through $2,355.12 and $2,313.39 toward $2,140. The chart is available from TradingView.

An alternative would hold $2,380-$2,400 and break through $2,450 and $2,578.97, conditional on strong bitcoin performance. A third scenario involves a decline through $2,200 toward $2,070, followed by a possible double bottom and recovery to $2,313. The related charts are available here and here.

Dollar index reverses from 102.945

The DXY set a prior-week high at 102.945 after elevated Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index readings, then reversed below 102.000. It tested support around 101.612 and set a prior-week low at 101.576. The index was at 101.904, below resistance at 101.977, with its four-hour RSI at 45.85.

The priority bearish scenario involves a rebound into 102.250-102.400 before a decline through 101.576 and 101.200 toward 100.700. A bullish alternative would defend 101.300-101.600 and rise through 102.000 toward 102.945 and 103.500. A third scenario would keep DXY between 101.200 and 102.400. The scenario charts are available here, here and here.

Weekly triggers and trading plan

The calendar lists U.S. crude-oil inventories for Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 5:30 p.m.; initial jobless claims for Thursday, Oct. 22, at 3:30 p.m.; and October services and manufacturing PMI readings for Friday, Oct. 23, at 4:45 p.m. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were also cited as a potential source of volatility.

The author said no trades would be opened inside bitcoin’s $80,000-$85,000 range or Ethereum’s $2,380-$2,480 range. A remaining bitcoin short position, with a stop at $85,560 and a target of $79,500, remained open.

Source: Incrypted