- Bernstein analysts said the CLARITY Act could advance further than markets expect ahead of a Sept. 15 procedural vote.
- The analysts said any positive surprise on the bill is “definitely not priced in.”
- The vote will come during a busy week that also includes the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Bernstein analysts said ahead of a Sept. 15 procedural vote that the CLARITY Act could make more progress than markets expect, citing Republican concessions on ethics issues and concerns from local banks. The assessment matters because the analysts said the market is leaning toward a negative outcome and any positive surprise is “definitely not priced in.”
The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the market is positioned for a negative scenario ahead of the bill’s vote and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision, according to The Block.
Bernstein called the ethics proposal “likely the best possible.” The analysts pointed to the White House agreeing to give state attorneys general a role in enforcing restrictions, along with provisions tied to divesting crypto assets or placing them in a blind trust.
The analysts said those concessions could secure support from some Democrats, leaving room for last-minute negotiations before the vote.
Bernstein said failure of the CLARITY Act would represent the worst-case scenario, including for the banking lobby. The analysts said the latest version gives banks protective mechanisms addressing stablecoin yields and the risk of deposit outflows during a potential banking crisis.
The firm also highlighted the timing of the vote, which will be followed by the Fed’s rate decision. Bernstein estimated that a hawkish Fed stance combined with the bill’s failure could cause a significant market drawdown, while a positive outcome could trigger a strong move in crypto assets and shares of companies in the sector.
Final version of the CLARITY Act
Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott unveiled the final version of the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill ahead of the procedural vote scheduled for Sept. 15, 2026.
The document includes 126 amendments proposed by Democrats, including ethics provisions from a package introduced by Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego.
According to the Senate schedule, the procedural vote on H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is scheduled for Sept. 15 at 2:15 p.m. local time.
Lummis previously warned that if the current effort fails, passage of the bill could be delayed until 2030.
Source: Incrypted
