CryptoQuant analysts said Bitcoin’s market structure remains constructive, but warned that further gains depend on stronger spot demand. Over September 4–5, derivatives open interest fell from about $27.5 billion to $25.7 billion, although the analysts said the current price rebound could not yet be described as fully spot-driven.

Large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin

Bitcoin holdings in spot exchange-traded funds continue to rise, indicating steady absorption by institutional investors, according to a CryptoQuant analysis. The analysts also said a noticeable “buy wall” was forming around current price levels among large market participants.

At the same time, CryptoQuant said the negative reading for Bitcoin spot demand continued to worsen, primarily because of selling by retail investors. Large-investor accumulation is increasing while retail Bitcoin holdings are declining, the analysts said.

Retail participants have continued to sell even as Bitcoin’s price rises, according to CryptoQuant. “They are used to declines and sell off assets during these upward moves,” CryptoQuant said.

Bitcoin reserves on Binance remain elevated at about 685,000–687,000 BTC. The average seven-day net Bitcoin inflow to the exchange increased to approximately 593 BTC.

Stablecoin inflows are also rising, according to the analysts. CryptoQuant said this means the potential supply of Bitcoin available for sale and market participants’ buying power are increasing at the same time.

Spot demand faces a test at $82,000–$83,000

Conditions in the derivatives market have partly shifted. Funding rates turned negative, while total Bitcoin open interest declined over September 4–5.

However, Bitcoin open interest on Binance recently surpassed $10 billion, reaching a six-month high. CryptoQuant therefore said the rebound could not yet be characterized as fully driven by spot demand, according to its spot and derivatives demand data.

CryptoQuant said the key test for Bitcoin will be whether spot demand can absorb available supply and push the price decisively through the $82,000–$83,000 range. The analysts warned that Bitcoin’s upward move could falter if the negative spot-demand trend persists, even as large investors continue accumulating the asset.

Arthur Hayes previously said money printing in the United States would push Bitcoin to $500,000.

Source: Incrypted