An unnamed trader said a Bitcoin short position tracked since early October reached its final target at $79,500, with most of the position closed at a profit. The analyst said the next move would depend largely on Bitcoin’s October close relative to $80,000, Ethereum’s behavior near lower liquidity levels and the week’s U.S. economic events.

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Bitcoin reaches $79,500 target

The $79,500 target sits near the midpoint of a four-hour fair value gap, or FVG, between $78,400 and $80,500. The analyst said the remaining part of the position was being held without additional risk and that no new aggressive action was planned until new range boundaries formed.

Expectations of a possible strike on Iran prompted some market participants to close positions on Friday, according to the analysis. The anticipated attack did not occur, while Bitcoin showed neither cascading liquidations nor strong dip-buying and instead drifted lower amid thin order-book liquidity.

The analyst described $80,000 as increasingly fragile after repeated tests produced deeper declines and weaker rebounds. Weak economic data and high energy prices were adding pressure, the analysis said.

An October close below $80,000 could open a decline toward a weekly Fibonacci retracement level near $72,500 and then $70,000. That path would enter an unfilled daily FVG at $70,000-$73,000 and approach the 2024 all-time high of $73,881.4. A close above $80,000 could preserve the broader $80,000-$88,000 range for at least another month.

Bitcoin scenarios

In the base case, Bitcoin briefly moves into the $82,000-$82,400 four-hour FVG before reversing through $80,000 and the previous weekly low of $80,114.3, targeting the daily imbalance near $73,881.4. Chart.

The alternative case calls for a weak rebound toward $81,000, followed by a break below $80,114.3, a pause near $79,178.6 and a failed retest of $80,000. An October close below support could then accelerate a fall toward $72,571.9. Chart.

In the least likely case, buyers defend the weekly and daily opening levels, reclaim $82,000-$82,400 and move toward the previous weekly high of $84,875.2. Chart.

Ethereum remains under pressure

The analyst said an Ethereum short opened near $2,737 early in the month was closed at its primary targets. Ethereum subsequently formed a false high near $2,526.99, fell below $2,313 and set a new weekly low at $2,281.22, but did not reach the daily imbalance around $2,200.

Ethereum was trading near $2,325, around the daily and weekly opening level of $2,328.58 and below the previous monthly low of $2,355.12, which the analyst identified as resistance. Higher resistance blocks stood at $2,450-$2,470 and $2,580-$2,625. The broad daily FVG extended from $1,920 to $2,220, with a midpoint near $2,070.

Four-hour RSI stood at 40 and open interest at 2.33 million contracts. The analyst said the decline had occurred without pronounced deleveraging or signs of panic selling.

ETH/BTC traded near 0.02897, just above the 0.02870 all-time low that has held since July. The analyst said a sustainable Ethereum reversal would require a sweep below that level followed by a quick recovery.

The base scenario calls for a brief move to $2,370, consolidation below $2,355.12 and a break under $2,281.22 toward $2,200, with main targets at $2,010-$2,070. Chart. An alternative rebound into $2,450-$2,470 could precede a decline toward $2,070. Chart. The least likely case requires Ethereum to hold above $2,355.12, break $2,450-$2,470 and exceed $2,526.99, provided Bitcoin holds $80,000 through October. Chart.

Dollar index awaits Fed decision

The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, was consolidating near 101.785 after trading between the previous weekly low of 101.446 and high of 102.080. Resistance stood at 101.977 and in a four-hour FVG at 102.100-102.400; support lay at 101.612 and 101.446. Four-hour RSI was near a neutral 51.

The analyst’s base case calls for a sweep above 102.080 followed by a reversal toward 101.100, potentially supporting cryptocurrencies. Chart. The alternative has DXY defending support and holding above 102.200, increasing pressure on risk assets. Chart. A third scenario envisions extended range trading followed by weakness toward 101.000. Chart.

The Fed rate decision and FOMC press conference are scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, at 20:00, followed on Thursday, October 29, at 14:30 by U.S. third-quarter GDP, core PCE and initial jobless claims. The analysis said markets largely expected no rate change, leaving Christopher Waller’s tone and any deviation in the economic data as the principal volatility risks.

The trader said no new positions would be opened before those events. A confirmed DXY break below 101.446 could support Bitcoin and altcoins, while a move above 102.100 following hawkish Fed rhetoric could increase pressure on risk assets.

Source: Incrypted