- Galaxy Digital has reduced the probability of passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 to 50%.
- The reduction is due to a crowded Senate calendar, not changes in the bill’s content.
- Key factors include scheduling conflicts, ongoing negotiations, and unresolved ethical issues.
- Potential for increased approval chances depends on public agreement of committee texts and setting a July voting date.
Galaxy Digital Reduces Probability of CLARITY Act Passage to 50%
In a pivotal update within the cryptocurrency sector, Galaxy Digital has adjusted its forecast concerning the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026. The probability now stands at an even 50%, primarily because of scheduling conflicts within the Senate rather than any amendments to the bill itself. This shift underscores how procedural hurdles can significantly impact legislative progress.
Reasons Behind Decreased Chances
Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, attributes this adjustment to several factors. The bill currently sits as item number 423 on the Senate calendar since June 1st, following approval from the Senate Banking Committee. Crucially, there is no scheduled date for a vote nor any formal movement towards initiating discussions on it.
Thorn emphasizes that while committee-level negotiations, particularly between banking and agriculture committees, are ongoing and appear constructive, they lack public confirmation of a unified text or clarity on voting timelines. Furthermore, ethical considerations remain contentious; a conflict-of-interest amendment was rejected by one committee while Senators Gallego and Booker continue advocating for mandatory standards as prerequisites for their support.
Challenges Facing Senate Scheduling
The competition for Senate attention intensified when President unexpectedly canceled signing a bipartisan housing bill on June 24th. This added another layer of complexity to an already packed agenda. Additionally, two critical issues remain unresolved: Section 702 FISA lapsed without renewal on June 12th, and deliberation over FY2027’s defense budget still awaits action.
Possible Solutions
For hopes to rise above 50%, Thorn suggests that Senate Majority Leader John Thune must announce a voting date before early July with proceedings occurring before the August recess. Failing this would push discussions into September amid pre-election political dynamics where passing controversial laws becomes increasingly challenging.
Boosting approval odds hinges upon publicly agreeing upon Banking-Agriculture texts or resolving ethics concerns with sufficient Democratic backing through initiatives like BRCA. Officially scheduling July votes would also contribute positively.
The Path Forward
Despite these challenges, Thorn maintains optimism about potential passage this year given its substantial nature—a fifty-fifty chance is notably high under such circumstances. With committee approval already secured and steady negotiation progress albeit without definite voting dates amidst constant agenda competition—the window narrows over weeks rather than months.
Mark your calendars: On July 17th, 2026—the House Financial Services Committee plans field hearings on CLARITY aiding informed discussion moving forward within Congress’s legislative landscape reshaping crypto’s future trajectory globally!
