- Meta began testing a prediction-markets app among employees in November 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
- The app, called Takes, lets employees risk internal credibility points on event outcomes without wagering real money.
- Meta has not said whether it plans to release the app publicly.
- Bernstein estimated that the prediction-markets industry could reach $240 billion in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030.
Meta began testing its own prediction-markets app among employees in November 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The project gives Meta an entry into a rapidly expanding market that is also drawing increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators.
The platform, currently called Takes, allows users to predict event outcomes and earn internal “cred” points for correct answers without wagering real money. Meta has not said whether it plans to make the app available to the public.
From Arena to Takes
Test participants choose answers to questions and risk cred points, short for credibility and intended to represent trust or reputation. Users gain points for correct predictions and lose them for incorrect ones.
One question asked whether former Apple CEO Tim Cook would become NVIDIA’s next head. At the time of the test, most participants predicted that he would not. Another question concerned the winner of the television quiz show “Jeopardy.”
Jensen Huang recently stepped down as NVIDIA’s CEO following a scandal involving an alleged Chinese spy, while company employees demanded his reinstatement as CEO.
Meta routinely tests new products and features among employees through a process known as dogfooding. Not all internally tested projects reach public release, and their names and capabilities may change during development.
The project first became known in June 2026, when Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg tasked a team with developing an app under the internal codename Arena. At a spring employee meeting, Zuckerberg also discussed plans to create as many as 50 new apps with product chief Chris Cox.
Market growth and regulatory scrutiny
Investment firm Bernstein estimated that the prediction-markets industry could reach about $240 billion in 2026, an increase of 370% from a year earlier. Bernstein forecast that the market could grow to $1 trillion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of about 80% from 2025 through 2030.
The sector is facing increased attention from U.S. regulators. In September, all 11 Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee called for public hearings on the risks of manipulation and insider trading in prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously issued a “No-Action Letter” allowing certain market participants not to retain records of event contracts under swap-reporting rules. The U.S. regulator is also prepared to fight for prediction markets before the Supreme Court.
Source: Incrypted
