CryptoQuant analysts identified two trends in the bitcoin market: rising retail inflows to Binance and declining exchange inflows from large holders. They also said traders’ realized price could become an important support level if bitcoin enters a correction.

Realized price could provide support

The analysts defined traders’ realized price as the average purchase price of bitcoins that last moved between one and three months ago. The metric represents the cost basis of assets held by relatively recent market participants.

Bitcoin was trading near the lower bound of $80,000, while traders’ realized price had climbed to an average of $70,000, according to CryptoQuant. The market price therefore remained above the average cost basis of that investor group.

During previous bull phases, traders’ realized price has often acted as support when bitcoin fell to the corresponding level, the analysts said. If bitcoin trades below the metric, however, that level could become resistance because investors facing losses may sell when the price returns to their breakeven point.

CryptoQuant also identified an Upper Band. In previous periods, bitcoin’s approach to that level often coincided with increased profit-taking and short-term corrections.

The analysts said market participants could watch the Upper Band if bitcoin continues to rise, because profit-taking may intensify near it. During a correction, traders’ realized price would be the other reference point.

Neither level guarantees a specific price move, CryptoQuant cautioned. The analysts said the cost-basis structure of holdings looked constructive over the short to medium term as long as bitcoin remained above traders’ realized price. In a deeper decline, they said it would be important to assess whether the metric could support the market price.

Retail inflows to Binance reach six-month high

A separate CryptoQuant analysis indicated diverging behavior by retail investors and whales.

During the past few weeks, as bitcoin held above $80,000, inflows from small holders to Binance rose to a six-month high. Over 30 days, the measure nearly doubled to $10.75 billion from $5.5 billion.

Bitcoin inflows from whales to the exchange have declined for almost two months. The measure fell to $3.8 billion from $5.9 billion at the end of August.

CryptoQuant said retail investors may view the market rebound as an opportunity to sell at more favorable levels after a prolonged downturn. Large holders, by contrast, have not rushed to transfer bitcoin to exchanges, which may indicate that they do not actively intend to sell at current prices.

The analysts said the divergence warranted monitoring, particularly if bitcoin continues to rise. In that case, they said it would be important to determine whether large holders maintain their restraint.

Experts previously said bitcoin was forming a bottom amid whale accumulation, although spot demand remained weak.

Source: Incrypted