Bitcoin held key support during the last trading week after a decline from $86,976.1 stopped at $80,344.8, leaving the psychological $80,000 level and the structural low at $80,095.9 intact. The defense preserved uncertainty over the market’s direction ahead of U.S. inflation data, while Ethereum remained under greater pressure amid outflows from spot ETFs.

Bitcoin holds structural support

Bitcoin followed the analysis’s preferred pullback scenario, reversing from the previous week’s high of $86,976.1. About $1 billion in long positions were liquidated during the decline, but the price did not extend below $80,000.

The analysis identified $80,095.9 as the starting point of the final advance to all-time highs. As long as that level remains unbroken, it said, the price imbalance below it remains open.

Bitcoin was trading near $83,552, below the lower edge of an imbalance between $83,600 and $84,000. Its four-hour relative strength index had returned to a neutral 53, while open interest had declined to 94,140 contracts. The analysis characterized the rebound from $80,344.8 as a technical retracement rather than seller capitulation or a structural reversal.

The author said 75% of a short position had been closed at local lows. The remainder carried a stop at $85,560 and a final target of $79,500, the midpoint of an unfilled four-hour fair-value gap between $78,400 and $80,500.

Bitcoin scenarios

Under the bullish scenario, consolidation between $82,220 and $83,000 would precede an accepted breakout through resistance at $83,600-$85,200, opening a move toward $87,385.1 or higher. That outcome would trigger the position’s stop while leaving $80,095.9 untouched. (TradingView chart)

The bearish scenario calls for a technical rise into $84,500-$85,200, followed by rejection, a return below $83,000 and a sweep beneath $80,095.9 toward $79,500. (TradingView chart) A third scenario would produce a wider range: a decline to $81,500, a wick above $87,385.1 and another test of $80,000. (TradingView chart)

Ethereum remains weaker

Ethereum peaked at $2,737.61 before breaking four-hour support at $2,690-$2,726. It then moved through the previous week’s low at $2,634, the $2,600-$2,560 zone, $2,520 and the $2,450-$2,480 area before stopping at $2,405.07.

The analysis attributed Ethereum’s relative weakness to continued outflows from spot ETFs, while bitcoin received some support from institutional inflows. Ethereum was trading at $2,552.84, with overhead imbalances between $2,585 and $2,690 and no identified support pool before $2,355. Open interest was unchanged at 2.33 million, which the analysis said showed that the rebound lacked new positioning.

The author closed 75% of the Ethereum short and moved the remaining position’s stop to breakeven. Targets remained the previous month’s low at $2,355.12 and the upper boundary of a daily fair-value gap near $2,200.

The bearish scenario calls for rejection from four-hour resistance and a break below $2,405.07 toward $2,355.12. (TradingView chart) A sustained move through $2,585-$2,690 would invalidate the bearish structure and prompt consideration of long positions. (TradingView chart) A third scenario anticipates volatile trading between roughly $2,460 and $2,690. (TradingView chart)

Dollar approaches key resistance

The Dollar Index rose through 102.00 and reached 102.535 before trading near 102.309 inside a four-hour resistance block. A break above 102.535 would expose 103.500-104.000, while losses of 101.977, 101.754 and 101.612 could open declines toward 101.200 and the daily imbalance at 100.400-100.800.

The three scenarios are rejection toward 101.200 and 100.600 (chart), a breakout toward 103.500-104.000 (chart), or a brief move above 102.535 followed by a reversal toward 101.400-101.200 (chart).

Scheduled U.S. catalysts

Core and headline U.S. consumer-price data are scheduled for Wednesday, October 14, at 3:30 p.m. Retail sales, producer prices and initial jobless claims follow on Thursday, October 15, at 3:30 p.m. Fed Governor Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday, October 16, at 6:30 a.m.

The trading plan calls for no new positions before the inflation releases and for avoiding the first 15 to 30 minutes after publication. The analysis said the key dollar support area was 101.977-101.754; a four-hour close below it would favor the corrective dollar scenario.

Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis reflects the author’s personal opinion. Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.

Source: Incrypted