An Incrypted market analysis this week outlined possible price paths for bitcoin, Ethereum and the U.S. dollar index as traders prepared for macroeconomic volatility. The analysis said bitcoin’s rise involved little additional futures leverage, while Ethereum continued to lag and a stronger dollar pressured risk assets.

Bitcoin avoided an anticipated decline below $80,000 last week and instead found support at $82,500, the previous week’s low. The market then recovered the decline and approached recent highs at the start of the new week.

Bitcoin approaches overhead liquidity

Bitcoin was trading near $86,385, below previous-week-high liquidity pools at $87,249.6 and $87,385.1. The analysis described the structure since Sept. 29 as bullish, with progressively higher lows and buyers absorbing pullbacks.

A four-hour fair value gap stood at $85,000-$85,200. Lower reference points included $82,828.7 and the previous week’s low of $82,500.1, followed by a daily imbalance around $80,000.

The four-hour relative strength index was near 65, close to overbought territory but without bearish divergences. Open interest increased only slightly during the week, from 96,010 to 97,880 contracts. The analysis attributed the advance primarily to spot buying rather than the leverage buildup seen during September’s rise.

Under the first bitcoin scenario, price would briefly reach $87,249.6 before reversing, losing support at $85,000-$85,200 and breaking below $82,828.7 toward $79,500-$80,000. A second scenario envisaged a successful retest of $85,000-$85,200, followed by four-hour closes above $87,249.6 and $87,385.1 that could open a move toward $89,000. The least likely scenario was a gradual decline toward $80,000.

Ethereum remains below resistance

Ethereum was quoted at $2,726 after rebounding from the previous week’s low of $2,634.00. It remained below liquidity pools at $2,779.00 and $2,806.76, suggesting that capital had not yet rotated into altcoins.

Support included a four-hour fair value gap at $2,690-$2,726, imbalances at $2,600-$2,640 and $2,520-$2,560, and the $2,634.00 weekly low. The RSI stood at 59, while open interest had edged up to 2.33 million.

The analysis presented three Ethereum paths: a break through support toward $2,520-$2,560; a liquidity sweep above $2,806.76 into $2,830-$2,845 before a reversal toward $2,634.00; or a brief rise to $2,745 followed by a four-hour close below $2,690-$2,726 and a decline to $2,634.00.

Dollar and macroeconomic triggers

The dollar index rose through 101.398 and 101.612 last week to 102.207 before consolidating near 102.150. It was testing a broad four-hour supply zone at 102.300-102.600. The four-hour RSI stood around 62-63.

The analysis’ base-case dollar scenario involved a failed push higher, a loss of 101.977 and a retest of 101.612. An upside breakout could take the index toward 102.500-102.600, increasing pressure on bitcoin and altcoins. A third scenario envisaged a false break above 102.207 followed by a decline through 101.977 and 101.612 toward 101.200.

The week’s scheduled triggers include Wednesday’s release of minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and final services-sector PMI readings. Middle East tensions and energy-price movements were also cited as possible sources of sudden safe-haven volatility.

The author said a short position opened Friday remained active and that entries would be scaled, with additional limit orders placed above current prices. Four-hour closes below $86,000 for bitcoin and $2,690 for Ethereum would confirm the bearish scenario. Protective stops were set above $88,400 for bitcoin and $2,845 for Ethereum, and the analysis ruled out averaging down losing positions against an uptrend.

Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis represents the author’s personal opinion. Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.

Source: Incrypted