- Wintermute analysts shifted their crypto market assessment from moderately optimistic to neutral after spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $463 million in net outflows during the shortened holiday week, the first negative week since June.
- The reversal matters because Wintermute viewed ETF inflows as a key driver of bitcoin’s rise from $63,000 to $82,000 and sees no obvious replacement source of demand ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $197 million over the week, including $216 million on Friday after U.S. inflation data was released.
The crypto market entered a neutral phase ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision following the reversal in bitcoin ETF flows, according to Wintermute analysts. The firm said the change weakened the case for bitcoin to break out of its current trading range, although it did not rule out a continuation of the broader crypto market uptrend.
Bitcoin loses ETF support
Investors withdrew $463 million from spot bitcoin ETFs during the shortened holiday week, marking the first week of net outflows since June, Wintermute said.
According to the firm, ETF inflows were among the key drivers of bitcoin’s advance from $63,000 to $82,000. When ETF-related demand reversed, bitcoin lost about $3,500.
Wintermute said the shift could influence the market’s next move. Unless ETFs return to steady inflows, the firm sees no obvious source of new demand capable of pushing bitcoin out of its current range.
Ethereum performed more strongly over the same period. Spot ETH ETFs attracted $197 million for the week, including $216 million on Friday after the release of U.S. inflation data. The funds had recorded outflows from Tuesday through Thursday.
Bitcoin’s $76,000-$82,000 range has held for about four weeks, according to Wintermute. Since August, the cryptocurrency has rejected the upper boundary three times, while the $72,000 level has not been tested.
The firm said bitcoin would probably continue trading within the range unless ETF-driven demand recovers. It added that the absence of inflows weakens the case for opening new positions immediately before the Fed’s decision.
Fed decision could shape the next move
Wintermute said the first negative week for bitcoin ETFs since June was sufficient reason to move from a moderately optimistic market assessment to a neutral one.
Since August, the bullish case for bitcoin had rested on capital rotating from overvalued stocks into the cryptocurrency through ETFs, according to the firm. That flow reversed over the past week, while bitcoin fell more sharply than the stock market.
Wintermute did not dismiss the broader thesis that the crypto market’s advance could continue. However, without renewed ETF demand, it said there were insufficient grounds for bitcoin to break out of the $76,000-$82,000 range.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will provide another factor for the market this week. Wintermute expects the U.S. central bank’s comments about its next policy steps to influence the short-term trend in crypto assets.
The firm expects fewer macroeconomic events in the second half of September. It therefore said this week could be important in determining the crypto market’s momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Other analysts had earlier pointed to signals that the bitcoin and Ethereum rally could continue.
Source: Incrypted
