On Sept. 14, 2026, Santiment said Ethereum holdings on crypto exchanges had declined to about 6.06 million ETH from 22.9 million ETH in June 2020. That contraction matters, Santiment said, because fewer coins near exchange order books reduce the amount of Ethereum that can be sold quickly.

CryptoQuant separately identified rising profitability among long-term bitcoin holders as a possible sign of an emerging uptrend, while analyst Darkfost said short-term holders had spent almost a month mostly in profit.

Ethereum supply on exchanges falls

Ethereum’s exchange supply has fallen by 73% from its June 2020 peak, according to Santiment. The analytics platform linked the decline to Ethereum moving into staking, exchange-traded funds, treasury strategies and long-term custody. Validators have also locked up some coins to support network operations.

Santiment said the reduced supply available for sale could allow a smaller amount of new demand to push Ethereum’s price higher.

Large bitcoin holders reduce balances

Santiment also reported a change in bitcoin holder behavior. During a three-week period in which bitcoin held above $80,000, the platform said market sentiment shifted from caution toward actively chasing further gains.

Wallets holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC, which Santiment treats as key groups for assessing market dynamics, reduced their balances by 0.20% during the period. Retail wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC moved in the opposite direction, shifting from selling to gradual accumulation. Their holdings increased by 0.09% from the peak of fear of missing out, or FOMO.

Santiment said large holders reducing positions while retail investors buy has historically occurred near locally overheated market tops. The platform cautioned that the pattern does not guarantee a price decline and said stronger confirmation was needed for the rally to continue while bitcoin traded in the $75,000-to-$80,000 range.

CryptoQuant sees potential uptrend

CryptoQuant highlighted long-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH SOPR, which measures the profitability of coins spent by long-term holders. The platform said the metric had risen above 1, potentially indicating that the market was moving from a bearish phase into a neutral phase and the beginning of an uptrend.

LTH SOPR has not exceeded 6 during the current cycle, CryptoQuant said. The platform said cyclical market tops have historically formed near that level.

Long-term holders have also not entered a large-scale profit-taking phase, according to CryptoQuant. Their bitcoin holdings remain near all-time highs, and accumulation continued until recently.

CryptoQuant therefore said the earlier price increase may have been a preparatory phase and that a broader bull rally may now be developing. Under its model, a cycle peak would coincide with large-scale profit-taking and LTH SOPR rising above 6.

Short-term holders remain profitable

Analyst Darkfost said short-term bitcoin holders had spent an extended period mostly in profit for the first time since the market peak. A similar period in January lasted less than a week, while losses among short-term holders remained dominant in May.

Short-term holders have now remained in profit for almost a month, Darkfost said. Their unrealized gains are estimated at about $168 billion, compared with losses of just over $100 billion.

During bear markets, a return to profitability among short-term holders typically creates brief opportunities to sell, Darkfost said. If prices then fall, holders can return to losses and capitulate. He said sustained profitability could instead indicate a change in market structure, with bitcoin holding above $80,000 providing important confirmation.

Other experts previously cautioned that bitcoin’s rally could be unsustainable because of weak spot demand.

Source: Incrypted